unfortunately, your theories definitely have gaps.
1) If you start an MMO game and you are not at the start and do not know the mechanics, then you have a very small probability that you will get hooked on starting the game, because veterans have the know-how and within a week they have what you have in a month or 2, and then all you need is a raid and ress kill and the game will stop entertaining you...
Might be true, circumstantially, but if people can have goals... if the game is only a grind fest to gather mats, and there is no mystery, sure, that's true.
MO2 was a real shit show. In some ways, they are paying it back by giving us the game b2p for probably at least a year. That is the draw. It's sad. I wish they could do it over. They are in a precarious situation, and I don't think they want to lose any more player base. Still, we went from 1500 to now 1000. The reason I look at 'peak' opposed to 'avg' is because there are definitely dead times cuz it's a world game.
So, June and July were pretty brutal for the game, then it leveled out. When the new numbers update, eventually and Oct numbers drop, it's gonna be a big loss. Those people are still 'around' because we get 1500 peak sometimes. It's been a sec. To not hit that on the weekend is pretty sad.
But yeah, MO1 also had a really deep crafting system and big rewards for enduring whatever, even tho you couldn't spec combat on the same char. This is just like... throw on your reptile carp, pick up your steel wep, and let's go. To me tho, I'm good with even incis/mola (even dropped my wt again,) and on my 'saboteur' like 11wt w/e. Then what do you do? Pound rocks, hit mobs. Go get some samey horses. I guess they improved(?) the dungeon content, but by making it less accessible, they played themselves, I think. It's good to see things happen in real time so nobody can say you're wrong. We got 3 magic schools, who knows how many dungeons, more armor sets, risar weps, mats are re-balanced to where a lot of animat armors are decent enough. Yet... the game feels flavorless. Kinda like the whole you come upon a chest... but it's locked... or it's not locked and there is 1 silver coin.
I've said this before, but I really expected MO2 to have MO1 content... even like pre-TC content... by now. If it did, I would have fewer complaints. Even without the deep crafting, mounts with different carry weights, speeds, etc. Breeding is not, or should not be, hard to implement. It's just flavorless. It's 'true sandbox' in that we are the only people providing flavor. Check out the guild politics section: nothing's doing. Even if I try to make a thread there, I prol end up deleting it cuz NOBODY CARES haha. MO1 forums, even w/ tinypop had way more engaging forum content. People were shit talking til the day I put the game down forever. There was a 'history.'
The advantages of MO2 are: fewer dcs, fewer bugs (but still many) 'is that a star or a belbus?
' -squints -, less stuck-ing (altho a stuck button that will never get you UNSTUCK if you do get stuck), and horse armor defining speed to the point it's a big factor. Clade gifts were a great idea (cuz I was suggesting it, so of course!) but as of now, it's much too grindy especially like up to 10... dudes should be like 6 ez coming out of haven and get to 10 speccing up haha.
No more long poles, no more weak spot on spears, flanged mace is no longer a light wep (a real head shaker tbh, considering that makes all hammers 'too heavy' except warhammer which also got changed a lot. War hammer used to be a possible weak spot wep, and I really wanted to make a skadi weak spot war hammer in MO1. That was a goal. Never got around to it. Even lulsy stuff like that can encourage people to play,) just more limited play styles.
Crack pipe is stupid, 4kg armor wt is stupid, KD resist WILL BE STUPID, double pots are stupid, elf speed buff + actives are stupid, combat leap is stupid.
Reserve system means v little, 1800 like Jose. Taming is 30-40 spec... cc is almost no spec.
If you really look at what they did, they were operating under the premise that MO1 was TOO HARDCORE and TOO UNFORGIVING (prol why they are so hesitant to implement siege cuz doods like JohnOldman talkin' about quitting the game from being ganked in town,) however, my PoV was keep PvE accessible, even dungeon content, to small groups, keep the game hardcore... some people want a hardcore game. By changing the game up, you get this "NULL" level we are at now where nobody is satisfied. People are still like STOP THE PKING!! It's like wat PKing?? It's just some wew level stuff on so many levels.
AGAIN: MOST OF THIS STUFF COULD BE FIXED WITH A FEW CONTENT ADDITIONS (SIEGE ESP, even tho it would be a grief mechanic atm, would still get people riled up enough to get into the game,) and swapping around the numbers. Think about it... CHANGING NUMBERS. Imagine the game is all numbers, certain weps have dmgs, wts, swing speed, horses have speed, tankiness, armors, etc etc etc. They could take this week and do some deep thought and come out with NEW NUMBERS, literal like "enter this number instead of that number." And the game would be completely different. For better or worse, we dunno, but they won't even try...