Prediction Thread: Melee abilities will be the second most successful patch Mortal has ever had.

[fartbox]

So far nearly every prediction for patch cycles i've made have been correct. This is continuing on my multi year tradition of calling patch reception before it happens.

A couple of predictions to make:

1. Sarducca will be underwhelming, both to the market outside of the game(potential players) and current players. It will produce a very temporary and small influx of players, I don't expect Sarducca to introduce any new wide appeal game loops or new dynamics or to make the ecosystem more competitive.

2. Melee abilities will be the second most popular patch Mortal has ever had. Producing a massive influx of players similar to Ele patch. Because it introduces new dynamics and has potential to upset the status quo of the game of perpetually online zergs controlling every relevant end-game objective in the game.

It doesn't necessarily mean this population will "stick", it only means there will be a ton of initial interest from previous players, current players and players who have never tried the game before.


The only reason I believe melee abilities will be the "Second" instead of "First" is because the sub-gate that exists now that did not exist previously when Ele was released. But if Melee abilities fundamentally change the game enough it could surpass Ele as "first", just over a longer time period.

 

[Embuscade]

So, I don't understand what you're talking about when you say “Patch Ele”? It's not very precise? Do you mean “element”? Can you mean exactly what you're talking about?

Also, yes, you've written a lot of posts, could you make a condensed document of everything you've said? I've read 2 posts in the “general” category, and I have a few easy counter-arguments. You seem to have a very personal view of things, but you yourself are prey to bias, like everyone else, and you use abusive generalities.

If you've ever played MMOs, you must know that teams of Bombers dropping AOEs with huge bursts is the quassie of MMOs. Among others, Ashes of Creation has taken this approach, which I'm against, because the burst, if it annihilates a mass of players or just one via a monumental burst, amounts to the equivalent of Counter Strike gameplay. It's too radical.

What's nice about MO2 is that battles can last a long time, with kitting, parrying, potions (I'm more dubious about this last point), and heal balancing... This is the most complex subject debated on videos games for multiplayers.

 

[fartbox]

Ele patch produced the biggest one month gain in population of any Mortal patch thus far. It had the most interest from the genres demographic. This phenomenon was because it was a potential status quo disruptor by introducing new mechanics/utility. But once population had thoroughly tested it and found it offered little in that department, the ride was over.

Melee abilities will produce that same phenomenon.

Ashes is DOA. Game will be offline 3 years after release(if it ever releases at all). Made all the same mistakes that everyone else did; alienating too much of the demographic. They modeled after dead/dying PVXPVP games instead of looking at the ones that succeeded. Seeing as its already dead and doesn't know it there is no sense in elaborating on its balance/enchanting producing a low TTK environment, because the game already does a great job of alienating solo/casuals players with just the PVE/crafting/boss/objective mechanics before even considering combat, which is something Mortal doesn't do. You can actually do most of Mortal solo, if there wasn't a zerg standing in your way.

Mortal is much closer to being a good game then ashes, I only have enough energy to devote to one game, so its going to be to Mortal.

 

[fartbox]

So, I don't understand what you're talking about when you say “Patch Ele”? It's not very precise? Do you mean “element”? Can you mean exactly what you're talking about?

Also, yes, you've written a lot of posts, could you make a condensed document of everything you've said? I've read 2 posts in the “general” category, and I have a few easy counter-arguments. You seem to have a very personal view of things, but you yourself are prey to bias, like everyone else, and you use abusive generalities.

If you've ever played MMOs, you must know that teams of Bombers dropping AOEs with huge bursts is the quassie of MMOs. Among others, Ashes of Creation has taken this approach, which I'm against, because the burst, if it annihilates a mass of players or just one via a monumental burst, amounts to the equivalent of Counter Strike gameplay. It's too radical.

What's nice about MO2 is that battles can last a long time, with kitting, parrying, potions (I'm more dubious about this last point), and heal balancing... This is the most complex subject debated on videos games for multiplayers.

TTK is less of a concern when you incorporate "escapability". Games like Albion, EVE and OSRS lean heavily on disengage. But when you incorporate tons of disengage, the PvP becomes closer to consensual. In EVE for example, PVP is almost entirely consensual. You have to make grievous errors to get fights you dont want.

Henrik has been adamantly against that. He wants a low disengage environment, its clear, because 75% of the races must fight whatever comes after them and have 0% chance of disengage and elves have lackluster disengage that is immediately neutralized by other elves, unless they are extremely low weight class, which is why dex mage is the only relevant foot solo build right now.



So my suggestions were geared towards the game towards the rust route. Where escapability is mostly low but it still exists in some capacity. However to offset this the TTK is low, making fighting whatever is attacking you highly incentivized.

In mortal you get too many 0% win conditions. This is why the game is unpopular. People play PVP games to compete, if you hand 0% win conditions out like candy then its going to sour the genres opinion.

You can remove the 0% win conditions by adding more disengage to everyones kit or by lowering the TTK.
You can also ruleset instance to provide "provably fair fights"


All of this is part of the web diagram that Henrik has no interest in seeing and ive illustrated all of these points in my previous posts.

 

[Jackdstripper]

Anyone remember the “spear stance” ability in MO1? it was supposed to be an anti cavalry “spear in the ground” type of ability.

A cool idea on paper, but a total failure in practice. Never worked, and all it did was root the user to the ground for a few seconds and got you killed.

I’ll be getting my popcorn ready….

 

[ElPerro]

Anyone remember the “spear stance” ability in MO1? it was supposed to be an anti cavalry “spear in the ground” type of ability.

A cool idea on paper, but a total failure in practice. Never worked, and all it did was root the user to the ground for a few seconds and got you killed.

I’ll be getting my popcorn ready….

Yeah if theres only 1 thing certain, is that these melee abilities are either gonna be mechanically bad or grossly unbalanced. And the adrenaline system they are supposed to run with sounds very exploitable.

I bet Sarducaa will bring back more players just because its a NA server and alot of high ping players will be curious to see hows its like to play with low ping.

 

[Emdash]

It will be the third bandaid:

First bandaid, early game is impossible = ADD HAVEN.

Second bandaid, full loot makes people sad = ADD SOULBOUND BOOSTS.

Third bandaid, melee combat is fundamentally broken = ADD ABILITIES.

 

[fartbox]

Yeah if theres only 1 thing certain, is that these melee abilities are either gonna be mechanically bad or grossly unbalanced. And the adrenaline system they are supposed to run with sounds very exploitable.

I bet Sarducaa will bring back more players just because its a NA server and alot of high ping players will be curious to see hows its like to play with low ping.

Grossly imbalanced seems great. Everyone having power/agency is not a bad thing. Right now power is strictly relegated to large groups of veterans with lowish ping. You can see when you consolidate power into the hands of just a few that it is bad for population and while it does mirror real life, we have to remember that realism isn't always a good thing. MMOs are virtual and optional, real world is not optional. No one is going to work for 10 hours a days and pay taxes to their lords just to come home and look for opportunities to have virtual lords over them.

Making everyone dangerous would be the best way to increase competition in the game. Right now it is very uncompetitive and very stagnant. We need change.


Lets say for example...what changes for the average player with 2-3 hours of gametime a day if everyone is turned into a monster with a plethora of mobility, utility and easily applicable damage. They are still going to die, especially to large groups. But maybe just maybe they take one of them with them on the way out and maybe just maybe that brings a smile to their face and maybe just maybe that smile keeps them subbed next month.

The only thing that will change is that players who rarely die now will start dying, and they will be upset. That is a good thing imo. These players will never leave the game as long as there is a population for them to abuse. The only way we lose these types of players leave is if the population gets low enough to feel they can get more action in another game. We have witnessed this lately; with many prominent EU players leaving the game for Albion or adjacent games simply because they can get action there and cant find it reliably in Mortal any longer under these circumstances.



Alternatively we just make abilities be utility and disengage in nature. Taking the route that most other devs take when balancing open world; "Pick your fights". But henrik seems to like to force people to fight, i doubt he would want an environment like EVE where people really have total control over who/when/where they fight.


One cocnern that could be raised by turning everyone into a monster: How do we keep pet builds and mounted builds relevant in that environment? You don't; You give everyone access to pets and mounted, without point penatlies. And pets/mounted take a backseat from mainbuilding to more of a utility approach that everyone has access to.

Suddenly the pet market booms, taming becomes a very viable main profession and no more tears from people who hate pets because everyone now has pets and they are less oppressive in the face of everyone being a foot monster.

 

[Emdash]

It will be the third bandaid:

First bandaid, early game is impossible = ADD HAVEN.

Second bandaid, full loot makes people sad = ADD SOULBOUND BOOSTS.

Third bandaid, melee combat is fundamentally broken = ADD ABILITIES.

I forgot to say people afraid of loss = SIEGE WINDOWS.